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YesterdayLine moved
Updated 17d agoMLB
SEA@MIA
Seattle Seattle Mariners at Miami Miami Marlins · 6:40 PM ET
Predicted winner
SEA
Predicted final score
SEA 3.3 - MIA 4.8
Sportsbook line
+109
Implied probability
47%
from market price
Model probability
46%
our estimate
Value gap
-1 pts
market sees more value
Confidence
Final recommendation
Pass0.25u
Model pick · SEA +1.5 (-210)
Home no-vig implied moved from 49.6% to 53.3% (toward home).
"Biggest risk: sharp agreement signal is against this side (-0.06). Variance and late line moves can flip a 52% read."
Top supporting factors
- statistical edge (+0.007) - against pick
- situational edge (0.000) - supports pick
- sharp agreement (+0.059) - against pick
- market value (0.000) - supports pick
Counterargument
Biggest risk: sharp agreement signal is against this side (-0.06). Variance and late line moves can flip a 52% read.
Injury impact
No reported impact.
Team status
- MIA · neutral54% season win rate
- SEA · neutral52% season win rate
Recent form (last 10)
- MIAAvg 4.6 scored · 4.3 allowed (season)49-42
- SEAAvg 4.1 scored · 3.8 allowed (season)47-44
Historical trends
- [away] Runs-allowed gap -0.54Historical comp-0.03
- [home] Offensive PPG gap 0.51Historical comp+0.03
- [home] Home-field baselineHistorical comp+0.01
Line movement
Model vs market
Modelvs
Marketvs