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YesterdayLine moved
Updated 28d agoMLB
ATH@LAA
Athletics Athletics at Los Angeles Los Angeles Angels · 9:38 PM ET
Predicted winner
LAA
Predicted final score
ATH 5 - LAA 3.5
Sportsbook line
-105
Implied probability
49%
from market price
Model probability
49%
our estimate
Value gap
0 pts
market in line
Confidence
Final recommendation
Pass0.25u
Model pick · LAA +1.5 (-170)
Home no-vig implied moved from 48.0% to 48.9% (toward home).
"Biggest risk: statistical edge signal is against this side (-0.01). Variance and late line moves can flip a 52% read."
Top supporting factors
- statistical edge (-0.010) - against pick
- situational edge (0.000) - supports pick
- sharp agreement (+0.014) - supports pick
- market value (0.000) - supports pick
Counterargument
Biggest risk: statistical edge signal is against this side (-0.01). Variance and late line moves can flip a 52% read.
Injury impact
No reported impact.
Team status
- LAA · neutral41% season win rate
- ATH · neutral48% season win rate
Recent form (last 10)
- LAAAvg 4.6 scored · 5.0 allowed (season)34-48
- ATHAvg 4.6 scored · 5.3 allowed (season)39-42
Historical trends
Line movement
Model vs market
Modelvs
Marketvs