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YesterdayLine moved
Updated 3d agoNBAPlayable Value
NY@SA
New York New York Knicks at San Antonio San Antonio Spurs · 8:30 PM ET
Predicted winner
SA
Predicted final score
NY 105 - SA 110.5
Sportsbook line
-195
Implied probability
64%
from market price
Model probability
67%
our estimate
Value gap
+3 pts
model sees more value
Confidence
Playable ValueFinal recommendation
Small play0.25u
Model pick · SA -5.5 (-110)
Home no-vig implied moved from 63.9% to 63.8% (toward away).
"Biggest risk: sharp agreement signal is against this side (-0.00). Variance and late line moves can flip a 66% read."
Top supporting factors
- statistical edge (+0.128) - supports pick
- situational edge (0.000) - supports pick
- sharp agreement (-0.001) - against pick
- market value (+0.043) - supports pick
Counterargument
Biggest risk: sharp agreement signal is against this side (-0.00). Variance and late line moves can flip a 66% read.
Injury impact
No reported impact.
Team status
- SA · hot76% season win rate
- NY · hot65% season win rate
Recent form (last 10)
- SAAvg 119.8 scored · 111.5 allowed (season)62-20
- NYAvg 116.5 scored · 110.1 allowed (season)53-29
Historical trends
- [home] Home-field baselineHistorical comp+0.02
- [home] Net rating gap 1.98Historical comp+0.05
Line movement
Model vs market
Modelvs
Marketvs