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YesterdayLine moved
Updated 23d agoMLB
DET@NYY
Detroit Detroit Tigers at New York New York Yankees · 1:35 PM ET
Predicted winner
DET
Predicted final score
DET 4 - NYY 5.5
Sportsbook line
+120
Implied probability
43%
from market price
Model probability
42%
our estimate
Value gap
-1 pts
market sees more value
Confidence
Final recommendation
Pass0.25u
Model pick · DET +1.5 (-170)
Home no-vig implied moved from 56.3% to 56.6% (toward home). Steam detected across 3+ books in last 30 min.
"Biggest risk: statistical edge signal is against this side (-0.03). Variance and late line moves can flip a 52% read."
Top supporting factors
- statistical edge (+0.031) - against pick
- situational edge (0.000) - supports pick
- sharp agreement (+0.024) - against pick
- market value (0.000) - supports pick
Counterargument
Biggest risk: statistical edge signal is against this side (-0.03). Variance and late line moves can flip a 52% read.
Injury impact
No reported impact.
Team status
- NYY · neutral56% season win rate
- DET · neutral43% season win rate
Recent form (last 10)
- NYYAvg 4.9 scored · 3.8 allowed (season)48-37
- DETAvg 4.2 scored · 4.1 allowed (season)37-49
Historical trends
- [home] Home-field baselineHistorical comp+0.02
- [home] Offensive PPG gap 0.70Historical comp+0.04
Line movement
Model vs market
Modelvs
Marketvs