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FreshLine moved
Updated 26m agoMLB
CIN@NYY
Cincinnati Cincinnati Reds at New York New York Yankees · 1:35 PM ET
Predicted winner
CIN
Predicted final score
CIN 4.8 - NYY 3.3
Sportsbook line
+105
Implied probability
47%
from market price
Model probability
45%
our estimate
Value gap
-2 pts
market sees more value
Confidence
Final recommendation
Pass0.25u
Model pick · CIN -1.5 (+165)
Home no-vig implied moved from 50.9% to 53.2% (toward home). Steam detected across 3+ books in last 30 min.
"Biggest risk: sharp agreement signal is against this side (-0.07). Variance and late line moves can flip a 52% read."
Top supporting factors
- statistical edge (+0.037) - against pick
- situational edge (0.000) - supports pick
- sharp agreement (+0.065) - against pick
- market value (0.000) - supports pick
Counterargument
Biggest risk: sharp agreement signal is against this side (-0.07). Variance and late line moves can flip a 52% read.
Injury impact
No reported impact.
Team status
- NYY · hot62% season win rate
- CIN · neutral47% season win rate
Recent form (last 10)
- NYYAvg 5.2 scored · 3.6 allowed (season)46-28
- CINAvg 4.2 scored · 5.0 allowed (season)35-39
Historical trends
- [home] Home-field baselineHistorical comp+0.02
- [home] Runs-allowed gap 1.42Historical comp+0.07
- [home] Offensive PPG gap 1.01Historical comp+0.06
- [home] Net rating gap 2.43Historical comp+0.06
Line movement
Model vs market
Modelvs
Marketvs