Back to dashboard
YesterdayLine moved
Updated 44d agoMLB
CIN@NYY
Cincinnati Cincinnati Reds at New York New York Yankees · 1:35 PM ET
Predicted winner
NYY
Predicted final score
CIN 5 - NYY 3.5
Sportsbook line
-112
Implied probability
50%
from market price
Model probability
50%
our estimate
Value gap
0 pts
market in line
Confidence
Final recommendation
Pass0.25u
Model pick · NYY +1.5 (-186)
Home no-vig implied moved from 50.9% to 50.0% (toward away).
"Biggest risk: sharp agreement signal is against this side (-0.01). Variance and late line moves can flip a 51% read."
Top supporting factors
- statistical edge (+0.036) - supports pick
- situational edge (0.000) - supports pick
- sharp agreement (-0.014) - against pick
- market value (0.000) - supports pick
Counterargument
Biggest risk: sharp agreement signal is against this side (-0.01). Variance and late line moves can flip a 51% read.
Injury impact
No reported impact.
Team status
- NYY · hot61% season win rate
- CIN · neutral48% season win rate
Recent form (last 10)
- NYYAvg 5.2 scored · 3.6 allowed (season)46-29
- CINAvg 4.3 scored · 4.9 allowed (season)36-39
Historical trends
- [home] Offensive PPG gap 0.89Historical comp+0.05
- [home] Runs-allowed gap 1.29Historical comp+0.06
- [home] Home-field baselineHistorical comp+0.02
- [home] Net rating gap 2.19Historical comp+0.06
Line movement
Model vs market
Modelvs
Marketvs