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YesterdayLine moved
Updated 27d agoMLB
TEX@TOR
Texas Texas Rangers at Toronto Toronto Blue Jays · 3:07 PM ET
Predicted winner
TEX
Predicted final score
TEX 3.3 - TOR 4.8
Sportsbook line
+162
Implied probability
37%
from market price
Model probability
37%
our estimate
Value gap
0 pts
market in line
Confidence
Final recommendation
Pass0.25u
Model pick · TEX +1.5 (-135)
Home no-vig implied moved from 61.8% to 63.0% (toward home).
"Biggest risk: sharp agreement signal is against this side (-0.02). Variance and late line moves can flip a 52% read."
Top supporting factors
- statistical edge (-0.010) - supports pick
- situational edge (0.000) - supports pick
- sharp agreement (+0.018) - against pick
- market value (0.000) - supports pick
Counterargument
Biggest risk: sharp agreement signal is against this side (-0.02). Variance and late line moves can flip a 52% read.
Injury impact
No reported impact.
Team status
- TOR · neutral48% season win rate
- TEX · neutral49% season win rate
Recent form (last 10)
- TORAvg 4.1 scored · 4.5 allowed (season)39-43
- TEXAvg 4.0 scored · 4.2 allowed (season)40-42
Historical trends
- [home] Home-field baselineHistorical comp+0.01
Line movement
Model vs market
Modelvs
Marketvs