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YesterdayLine moved
Updated 18d agoMLB
NYY@TB
New York New York Yankees at Tampa Bay Tampa Bay Rays · 6:40 PM ET
Predicted winner
TB
Predicted final score
NYY 4.5 - TB 3
Sportsbook line
-103
Implied probability
48%
from market price
Model probability
47%
our estimate
Value gap
-1 pts
market sees more value
Confidence
Final recommendation
Pass0.25u
Model pick · TB +1.5 (-180)
Home no-vig implied moved from 52.0% to 48.0% (toward away).
"Biggest risk: sharp agreement signal is against this side (-0.06). Variance and late line moves can flip a 52% read."
Top supporting factors
- statistical edge (+0.018) - supports pick
- situational edge (0.000) - supports pick
- sharp agreement (-0.064) - against pick
- market value (0.000) - supports pick
Counterargument
Biggest risk: sharp agreement signal is against this side (-0.06). Variance and late line moves can flip a 52% read.
Injury impact
No reported impact.
Team status
- TB · neutral60% season win rate
- NYY · neutral55% season win rate
Recent form (last 10)
- TBAvg 4.6 scored · 4.1 allowed (season)52-35
- NYYAvg 4.8 scored · 3.9 allowed (season)49-40
Historical trends
- [home] Home-field baselineHistorical comp+0.01
Line movement
Model vs market
Modelvs
Marketvs