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YesterdayLine moved
Updated 29d agoMLB
ATH@SF
Athletics Athletics at San Francisco San Francisco Giants · 3:45 PM ET
Predicted winner
ATH
Predicted final score
ATH 3.3 - SF 4.8
Sportsbook line
+117
Implied probability
45%
from market price
Model probability
45%
our estimate
Value gap
0 pts
market in line
Confidence
Final recommendation
Pass0.25u
Model pick · ATH +1.5 (-180)
Home no-vig implied moved from 54.3% to 54.9% (toward home).
"Biggest risk: sharp agreement signal is against this side (-0.01). Variance and late line moves can flip a 52% read."
Top supporting factors
- statistical edge (-0.013) - supports pick
- situational edge (0.000) - supports pick
- sharp agreement (+0.010) - against pick
- market value (0.000) - supports pick
Counterargument
Biggest risk: sharp agreement signal is against this side (-0.01). Variance and late line moves can flip a 52% read.
Injury impact
No reported impact.
Team status
- SF · neutral42% season win rate
- ATH · neutral48% season win rate
Recent form (last 10)
- SFAvg 4.1 scored · 4.7 allowed (season)33-46
- ATHAvg 4.6 scored · 5.3 allowed (season)38-42
Historical trends
- [away] Offensive PPG gap -0.52Historical comp-0.03
- [home] Home-field baselineHistorical comp+0.01
- [home] Runs-allowed gap 0.56Historical comp+0.03
Line movement
Model vs market
Modelvs
Marketvs