Back to dashboard
YesterdayLine moved
Updated 2d agoMLB
HOU@KC
Houston Houston Astros at Kansas City Kansas City Royals · 2:10 PM ET
Predicted winner
HOU
Predicted final score
HOU 3.5 - KC 5
Sportsbook line
-101
Implied probability
48%
from market price
Model probability
48%
our estimate
Value gap
0 pts
market in line
Confidence
Final recommendation
Pass0.25u
Model pick · HOU +1.5 (-200)
Home no-vig implied moved from 52.4% to 52.0% (toward away).
"Biggest risk: situational edge signal is thin (0.00). Variance and late line moves can flip a 52% read."
Top supporting factors
- statistical edge (-0.012) - supports pick
- situational edge (0.000) - supports pick
- sharp agreement (-0.007) - supports pick
- market value (0.000) - supports pick
Counterargument
Biggest risk: situational edge signal is thin (0.00). Variance and late line moves can flip a 52% read.
Injury impact
No reported impact.
Team status
- KC · cold39% season win rate
- HOU · neutral46% season win rate
Recent form (last 10)
- KCAvg 4.0 scored · 4.7 allowed (season)28-43
- HOUAvg 4.6 scored · 5.1 allowed (season)33-39
Historical trends
- [away] Offensive PPG gap -0.63Historical comp-0.04
- [home] Home-field baselineHistorical comp+0.01
Line movement
Model vs market
Modelvs
Marketvs