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YesterdayLine moved
Updated 20d agoMLB
PHI@KC
Philadelphia Philadelphia Phillies at Kansas City Kansas City Royals · 8:10 PM ET
Predicted winner
KC
Predicted final score
PHI 5.3 - KC 3.8
Sportsbook line
+125
Implied probability
42%
from market price
Model probability
41%
our estimate
Value gap
-1 pts
market sees more value
Confidence
Final recommendation
Pass0.25u
Model pick · KC +1.5 (-127)
Home no-vig implied moved from 41.8% to 42.1% (toward home). Steam detected across 3+ books in last 30 min.
"Biggest risk: statistical edge signal is against this side (-0.03). Variance and late line moves can flip a 52% read."
Top supporting factors
- statistical edge (-0.026) - against pick
- situational edge (0.000) - supports pick
- sharp agreement (-0.013) - against pick
- market value (0.000) - supports pick
Counterargument
Biggest risk: statistical edge signal is against this side (-0.03). Variance and late line moves can flip a 52% read.
Injury impact
No reported impact.
Team status
- KC · cold40% season win rate
- PHI · neutral56% season win rate
Recent form (last 10)
- KCAvg 4.1 scored · 5.1 allowed (season)35-53
- PHIAvg 4.5 scored · 4.4 allowed (season)49-39
Historical trends
- [away] Runs-allowed gap -0.65Historical comp-0.03
- [home] Home-field baselineHistorical comp+0.01
Line movement
Model vs market
Modelvs
Marketvs