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YesterdayLine moved
Updated 3d agoMLB
COL@ATH
Colorado Colorado Rockies at Athletics Athletics · 10:05 PM ET
Predicted winner
COL
Predicted final score
COL 6.5 - ATH 8
Sportsbook line
+135
Implied probability
41%
from market price
Model probability
41%
our estimate
Value gap
0 pts
market in line
Confidence
Final recommendation
Pass0.25u
Model pick · COL +1.5 (-130)
Home no-vig implied moved from 59.3% to 58.6% (toward away).
"Biggest risk: statistical edge signal is against this side (-0.03). Variance and late line moves can flip a 52% read."
Top supporting factors
- statistical edge (+0.026) - against pick
- situational edge (0.000) - supports pick
- sharp agreement (-0.012) - supports pick
- market value (0.000) - supports pick
Counterargument
Biggest risk: statistical edge signal is against this side (-0.03). Variance and late line moves can flip a 52% read.
Injury impact
No reported impact.
Team status
- ATH · neutral49% season win rate
- COL · cold37% season win rate
Recent form (last 10)
- ATHAvg 4.4 scored · 5.0 allowed (season)34-35
- COLAvg 4.3 scored · 5.8 allowed (season)26-44
Historical trends
- [home] Runs-allowed gap 0.79Historical comp+0.04
- [home] Home-field baselineHistorical comp+0.02
Line movement
Model vs market
Modelvs
Marketvs