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Updated todayLine moved
Updated 2h agoNFL
CLE@JAX
Cleveland Cleveland Browns at Jacksonville Jacksonville Jaguars · 1:00 PM ET
Predicted winner
CLE
Predicted final score
CLE 16.5 - JAX 24
Sportsbook line
+290
Implied probability
25%
from market price
Model probability
24%
our estimate
Value gap
-1 pts
market sees more value
Confidence
Final recommendation
Pass0.25u
Model pick · CLE +7.5 (-110)
Home no-vig implied moved from 71.8% to 75.3% (toward home).
"Biggest risk: sharp agreement signal is against this side (-0.06). Variance and late line moves can flip a 52% read."
Top supporting factors
- statistical edge (-0.024) - supports pick
- situational edge (0.000) - supports pick
- sharp agreement (+0.056) - against pick
- market value (0.000) - supports pick
Counterargument
Biggest risk: sharp agreement signal is against this side (-0.06). Variance and late line moves can flip a 52% read.
Injury impact
No reported impact.
Team status
- JAX · neutral50% season win rate
- CLE · neutral50% season win rate
Recent form (last 10)
- JAXNo recent stats ingested yetNo data
- CLENo recent stats ingested yetNo data
Historical trends
- [home] Home-field baselineHistorical comp+0.01
Line movement
Model vs market
Modelvs
Marketvs