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YesterdayLine moved
Updated 1d agoMLB
LAA@ARI
Los Angeles Los Angeles Angels at Arizona Arizona Diamondbacks · 9:40 PM ET
Predicted winner
LAA
Predicted final score
LAA 3.8 - ARI 5.3
Sportsbook line
+113
Implied probability
45%
from market price
Model probability
44%
our estimate
Value gap
-1 pts
market sees more value
Confidence
Final recommendation
Pass0.25u
Model pick · LAA +1.5 (-172)
Home no-vig implied moved from 55.1% to 54.8% (toward away). Steam detected across 3+ books in last 30 min.
"Biggest risk: statistical edge signal is against this side (-0.02). Variance and late line moves can flip a 52% read."
Top supporting factors
- statistical edge (+0.025) - against pick
- situational edge (0.000) - supports pick
- sharp agreement (+0.015) - against pick
- market value (0.000) - supports pick
Counterargument
Biggest risk: statistical edge signal is against this side (-0.02). Variance and late line moves can flip a 52% read.
Injury impact
No reported impact.
Team status
- ARI · neutral51% season win rate
- LAA · neutral40% season win rate
Recent form (last 10)
- ARIAvg 4.2 scored · 4.5 allowed (season)36-35
- LAAAvg 4.5 scored · 5.0 allowed (season)29-43
Historical trends
- [home] Runs-allowed gap 0.51Historical comp+0.03
- [home] Home-field baselineHistorical comp+0.02
Line movement
Model vs market
Modelvs
Marketvs