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YesterdayLine moved
Updated 2d agoMLB
STL@MIN
St. Louis St. Louis Cardinals at Minnesota Minnesota Twins · 2:10 PM ET
Predicted winner
STL
Predicted final score
STL 4 - MIN 5.5
Sportsbook line
-108
Implied probability
50%
from market price
Model probability
50%
our estimate
Value gap
+1 pts
model sees more value
Confidence
Final recommendation
Pass0.25u
Model pick · STL +1.5 (-220)
Home no-vig implied moved from 51.5% to 50.4% (toward away).
"Biggest risk: situational edge signal is thin (0.00). Variance and late line moves can flip a 51% read."
Top supporting factors
- statistical edge (-0.023) - supports pick
- situational edge (0.000) - supports pick
- sharp agreement (-0.018) - supports pick
- market value (0.000) - supports pick
Counterargument
Biggest risk: situational edge signal is thin (0.00). Variance and late line moves can flip a 51% read.
Injury impact
No reported impact.
Team status
- MIN · neutral44% season win rate
- STL · neutral56% season win rate
Recent form (last 10)
- MINAvg 4.6 scored · 5.2 allowed (season)32-40
- STLAvg 4.6 scored · 4.4 allowed (season)38-30
Historical trends
- [home] Home-field baselineHistorical comp+0.01
- [away] Runs-allowed gap -0.78Historical comp-0.04
Line movement
Model vs market
Modelvs
Marketvs