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Yesterday
Updated 4h agoNCAAF
SMU@FSU
SMU SMU Mustangs at Florida State Florida State Seminoles · 7:30 PM ET
Predicted winner
FSU
Predicted final score
SMU 27.5 - FSU 25
Sportsbook line
+120
Implied probability
44%
from market price
Model probability
44%
our estimate
Value gap
0 pts
market in line
Confidence
Final recommendation
Pass0.25u
Model pick · FSU +2.5 (-112)
Home no-vig implied moved from 43.7% to 43.7% (flat).
"Biggest risk: situational edge signal is thin (0.00). Variance and late line moves can flip a 52% read."
Top supporting factors
- statistical edge (+0.010) - supports pick
- situational edge (0.000) - supports pick
- sharp agreement (0.000) - supports pick
- market value (0.000) - supports pick
Counterargument
Biggest risk: situational edge signal is thin (0.00). Variance and late line moves can flip a 52% read.
Injury impact
No reported impact.
Team status
- FSU · neutral50% season win rate
- SMU · neutral50% season win rate
Recent form (last 10)
- FSUNo recent stats ingested yetNo data
- SMUNo recent stats ingested yetNo data
Historical trends
- [home] Home-field baselineHistorical comp+0.01
Line movement
Model vs market
Modelvs
Marketvs