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YesterdayLine moved
Updated 15d agoMLB
BOS@CHW
Boston Boston Red Sox at Chicago Chicago White Sox · 2:10 PM ET
Predicted winner
BOS
Predicted final score
BOS 5.3 - CHW 3.8
Sportsbook line
+100
Implied probability
48%
from market price
Model probability
47%
our estimate
Value gap
-1 pts
market sees more value
Confidence
Final recommendation
Pass0.25u
Model pick · BOS -1.5 (+160)
Home no-vig implied moved from 50.9% to 52.2% (toward home).
"Biggest risk: sharp agreement signal is against this side (-0.02). Variance and late line moves can flip a 52% read."
Top supporting factors
- statistical edge (+0.015) - against pick
- situational edge (0.000) - supports pick
- sharp agreement (+0.021) - against pick
- market value (0.000) - supports pick
Counterargument
Biggest risk: sharp agreement signal is against this side (-0.02). Variance and late line moves can flip a 52% read.
Injury impact
No reported impact.
Team status
- CHW · neutral52% season win rate
- BOS · neutral47% season win rate
Recent form (last 10)
- CHWAvg 4.7 scored · 4.6 allowed (season)47-44
- BOSAvg 4.1 scored · 3.9 allowed (season)42-48
Historical trends
- [away] Runs-allowed gap -0.64Historical comp-0.03
- [home] Home-field baselineHistorical comp+0.01
- [home] Offensive PPG gap 0.60Historical comp+0.04
Line movement
Model vs market
Modelvs
Marketvs