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YesterdayLine moved
Updated 44d agoMLB
WSH@TB
Washington Washington Nationals at Tampa Bay Tampa Bay Rays · 1:40 PM ET
Predicted winner
WSH
Predicted final score
WSH 3.5 - TB 5
Sportsbook line
+112
Implied probability
45%
from market price
Model probability
45%
our estimate
Value gap
0 pts
market in line
Confidence
Final recommendation
Pass0.25u
Model pick · WSH +1.5 (-180)
Home no-vig implied moved from 55.3% to 54.8% (toward away).
"Biggest risk: statistical edge signal is against this side (-0.01). Variance and late line moves can flip a 52% read."
Top supporting factors
- statistical edge (+0.014) - against pick
- situational edge (0.000) - supports pick
- sharp agreement (-0.007) - supports pick
- market value (0.000) - supports pick
Counterargument
Biggest risk: statistical edge signal is against this side (-0.01). Variance and late line moves can flip a 52% read.
Injury impact
No reported impact.
Team status
- TB · neutral58% season win rate
- WSH · neutral52% season win rate
Recent form (last 10)
- TBAvg 4.4 scored · 4.3 allowed (season)42-31
- WSHAvg 5.4 scored · 5.2 allowed (season)40-37
Historical trends
- [away] Offensive PPG gap -0.94Historical comp-0.06
- [home] Runs-allowed gap 0.87Historical comp+0.04
- [home] Home-field baselineHistorical comp+0.01
Line movement
Model vs market
Modelvs
Marketvs