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FreshLine moved
Updated 25m agoMLB
WSH@TB
Washington Washington Nationals at Tampa Bay Tampa Bay Rays · 1:40 PM ET
Predicted winner
WSH
Predicted final score
WSH 3.3 - TB 4.8
Sportsbook line
+118
Implied probability
44%
from market price
Model probability
43%
our estimate
Value gap
-1 pts
market sees more value
Confidence
Final recommendation
Pass0.25u
Model pick · WSH +1.5 (-190)
Home no-vig implied moved from 55.3% to 56.3% (toward home). Steam detected across 3+ books in last 30 min.
"Biggest risk: sharp agreement signal is against this side (-0.04). Variance and late line moves can flip a 52% read."
Top supporting factors
- statistical edge (+0.016) - against pick
- situational edge (0.000) - supports pick
- sharp agreement (+0.040) - against pick
- market value (0.000) - supports pick
Counterargument
Biggest risk: sharp agreement signal is against this side (-0.04). Variance and late line moves can flip a 52% read.
Injury impact
No reported impact.
Team status
- TB · neutral58% season win rate
- WSH · neutral51% season win rate
Recent form (last 10)
- TBAvg 4.4 scored · 4.3 allowed (season)42-30
- WSHAvg 5.4 scored · 5.2 allowed (season)39-37
Historical trends
- [away] Offensive PPG gap -0.94Historical comp-0.06
- [home] Home-field baselineHistorical comp+0.01
- [home] Runs-allowed gap 0.89Historical comp+0.04
Line movement
Model vs market
Modelvs
Marketvs