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YesterdayLine moved
Updated 32d agoMLB
BOS@COL
Boston Boston Red Sox at Colorado Colorado Rockies · 8:40 PM ET
Predicted winner
COL
Predicted final score
BOS 6.8 - COL 5.3
Sportsbook line
+121
Implied probability
44%
from market price
Model probability
43%
our estimate
Value gap
-1 pts
market sees more value
Confidence
Final recommendation
Pass0.25u
Model pick · COL +1.5 (-132)
Home no-vig implied moved from 46.7% to 43.6% (toward away).
"Biggest risk: sharp agreement signal is against this side (-0.05). Variance and late line moves can flip a 52% read."
Top supporting factors
- statistical edge (+0.004) - supports pick
- situational edge (0.000) - supports pick
- sharp agreement (-0.050) - against pick
- market value (0.000) - supports pick
Counterargument
Biggest risk: sharp agreement signal is against this side (-0.05). Variance and late line moves can flip a 52% read.
Injury impact
No reported impact.
Team status
- COL · cold38% season win rate
- BOS · neutral41% season win rate
Recent form (last 10)
- COLAvg 4.6 scored · 5.7 allowed (season)30-48
- BOSAvg 3.9 scored · 4.0 allowed (season)31-44
Historical trends
Line movement
Model vs market
Modelvs
Marketvs