SEA@DET
Home no-vig implied moved from 46.7% to 83.5% (toward home).
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Clutch Puppy Expert Summary
Small edge on Seattle -1.5 (+135) vs Detroit — model win prob 52.3% vs market implied 52.2% for a tiny value gap of 0.1%. The core EV is a narrow model preference for Seattle at a strength score of 61% while the market has subtly moved toward the home side (home no-vig implied moved from 46.7% to 47.8%). This is a low-edge, high-confidence directional bet where price matters more than conviction.
The market opened 106/-124 and is now 100/-120. Home no-vig implied moved from 46.7% to 47.8% (toward home), indicating the market has priced slightly more home probability since open. The model vs market comparative values are very close (Model 47.7 vs Market 47.8), so movement has been small but in favor of the home side.
The statistical_edge layer is the dominant supportive signal with signal -0.052, weight 0.45 and contribution -0.023 (direction: supports pick), meaning the model's core numbers favor the SEA side even after weighting.
Sharp_agreement shows signal 0.088 and contribution 0.018 (direction: against pick) and the market moved from Opened 106/-124 to current 100/-120; that combination indicates professional flows have been tilting toward the home side.
Historical trends list [away] Runs-allowed gap -0.57 (strength -0.0286) and [home] Home-field baseline (strength 0.009), suggesting small historical edges that the model incorporates into its predicted SEA 4.5 — DET 3.
- Model win probability: 52.3% vs Market implied probability: 52.2% (value gap 0.1%).
- Strength score of 61% despite a small edge (value gap 0.1%).
- Market movement: Opened 106/-124, current 100/-120; home no-vig implied moved from 46.7% to 47.8%.
- Historical notes include [away] Runs-allowed gap -0.57 (strength -0.0286) and [home] Home-field baseline (strength 0.009).
- Model win prob: 52.3%
- Market implied prob: 52.2%
- Value gap (edge): 0.1%
- Strength score: 61%
- Home no-vig implied moved from 46.7% to 47.8%
- Opened 106/-124, current 100/-120
- Historical [away] Runs-allowed gap -0.57 (strength -0.0286)
No major injury notes detailed for this matchup.
No major injury notes detailed for this matchup.
Best bet - SEA -1.5 (+135) — model edge (value gap 0.1%) and projected SEA 4.5 — DET 3 support the run-line play.
Total - No total recommended — model output focuses on the spread/line and there is no total in the provided inputs.
Sharp signals are against the pick — sharp_agreement signal 0.088 (direction: against pick, contribution: 0.018) — so if pros are steering the market and the home move continues, the -1.5 ticket loses.
No reported injury impact.
The model's projected result of SEA 4.5 — DET 3 matches the output and is consistent with the small but positive away scoring edge implied by the model.
The 61% strength score reflects the modest value gap (0.1%) between the model (52.3%) and the market (52.2%) and the weighted layer contributions that produced the matchup score.
Game script tilts toward a one-run Seattle margin with controlled scoring: SEA 4.5 — DET 3.
Take SEA -1.5 (+135) at or near the posted price — the model recommends SEA -1.5 (+135) while the current sportsbook line is -120. This is a small, situational edge; bet size should reflect the 0.1% value gap.
Shop the price and target the +135 you want on SEA -1.5; given the tiny 0.1% edge and the sharp money leaning against the pick, limit unit size, and only lock in if you can secure or beat the recommended +135 price (current sportsbook line: -120). Consider standard correlation hygiene and avoid large parlays that increase variance.
Top supporting factors
- statistical edge (-0.041) - against pick
- situational edge (0.000) - supports pick
- sharp agreement (+0.200) - supports pick
- market value (0.000) - supports pick
Counterargument
Variance is always in play.
Injury impact
No reported impact.
Team status
Recent form (last 10)
Historical trends
- [away] Runs-allowed gap -0.57
- [home] Home-field baseline