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YesterdayLine moved
Updated 31d agoMLB
ATH@SF
Athletics Athletics at San Francisco San Francisco Giants · 9:45 PM ET
Predicted winner
ATH
Predicted final score
ATH 3.8 - SF 5.3
Sportsbook line
+119
Implied probability
44%
from market price
Model probability
43%
our estimate
Value gap
-1 pts
market sees more value
Confidence
Final recommendation
Pass0.25u
Model pick · ATH +1.5 (-165)
Home no-vig implied moved from 52.4% to 56.2% (toward home).
"Biggest risk: sharp agreement signal is against this side (-0.06). Variance and late line moves can flip a 52% read."
Top supporting factors
- statistical edge (-0.021) - supports pick
- situational edge (0.000) - supports pick
- sharp agreement (+0.061) - against pick
- market value (0.000) - supports pick
Counterargument
Biggest risk: sharp agreement signal is against this side (-0.06). Variance and late line moves can flip a 52% read.
Injury impact
No reported impact.
Team status
- SF · neutral40% season win rate
- ATH · neutral49% season win rate
Recent form (last 10)
- SFAvg 4.1 scored · 4.8 allowed (season)31-46
- ATHAvg 4.7 scored · 5.4 allowed (season)38-40
Historical trends
- [away] Offensive PPG gap -0.55Historical comp-0.03
- [home] Runs-allowed gap 0.54Historical comp+0.03
- [home] Home-field baselineHistorical comp+0.01
Line movement
Model vs market
Modelvs
Marketvs