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YesterdayLine moved
Updated 31d agoMLB
TEX@MIA
Texas Texas Rangers at Miami Miami Marlins · 6:40 PM ET
Predicted winner
TEX
Predicted final score
TEX 3.5 - MIA 5
Sportsbook line
+139
Implied probability
41%
from market price
Model probability
40%
our estimate
Value gap
-1 pts
market sees more value
Confidence
Final recommendation
Pass0.25u
Model pick · TEX +1.5 (-155)
Home no-vig implied moved from 56.3% to 59.3% (toward home).
"Biggest risk: sharp agreement signal is against this side (-0.05). Variance and late line moves can flip a 52% read."
Top supporting factors
- statistical edge (+0.001) - against pick
- situational edge (0.000) - supports pick
- sharp agreement (+0.047) - against pick
- market value (0.000) - supports pick
Counterargument
Biggest risk: sharp agreement signal is against this side (-0.05). Variance and late line moves can flip a 52% read.
Injury impact
No reported impact.
Team status
- MIA · neutral51% season win rate
- TEX · neutral49% season win rate
Recent form (last 10)
- MIAAvg 4.3 scored · 4.3 allowed (season)40-39
- TEXAvg 4.0 scored · 4.1 allowed (season)38-40
Historical trends
- [home] Home-field baselineHistorical comp+0.01
Line movement
Model vs market
Modelvs
Marketvs