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YesterdayLine moved
Updated 28d agoMLB
ATL@SF
Atlanta Atlanta Braves at San Francisco San Francisco Giants · 10:15 PM ET
Predicted winner
SF
Predicted final score
ATL 5 - SF 3.5
Sportsbook line
+108
Implied probability
47%
from market price
Model probability
46%
our estimate
Value gap
-1 pts
market sees more value
Confidence
Final recommendation
Pass0.25u
Model pick · SF +1.5 (-155)
Home no-vig implied moved from 48.5% to 46.9% (toward away).
"Biggest risk: statistical edge signal is against this side (-0.04). Variance and late line moves can flip a 52% read."
Top supporting factors
- statistical edge (-0.039) - against pick
- situational edge (0.000) - supports pick
- sharp agreement (-0.024) - against pick
- market value (0.000) - supports pick
Counterargument
Biggest risk: statistical edge signal is against this side (-0.04). Variance and late line moves can flip a 52% read.
Injury impact
No reported impact.
Team status
- SF · neutral41% season win rate
- ATL · hot61% season win rate
Recent form (last 10)
- SFAvg 4.1 scored · 4.8 allowed (season)33-47
- ATLAvg 4.9 scored · 3.7 allowed (season)48-31
Historical trends
Line movement
Model vs market
Modelvs
Marketvs