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YesterdayLine moved
Updated 44d agoMLB
WSH@TB
Washington Washington Nationals at Tampa Bay Tampa Bay Rays · 7:10 PM ET
Predicted winner
WSH
Predicted final score
WSH 3.5 - TB 5
Sportsbook line
+125
Implied probability
42%
from market price
Model probability
40%
our estimate
Value gap
-2 pts
market sees more value
Confidence
Final recommendation
Pass0.25u
Model pick · WSH +1.5 (-180)
Home no-vig implied moved from 52.4% to 58.0% (toward home).
"Biggest risk: sharp agreement signal is against this side (-0.09). Variance and late line moves can flip a 52% read."
Top supporting factors
- statistical edge (+0.011) - against pick
- situational edge (0.000) - supports pick
- sharp agreement (+0.089) - against pick
- market value (0.000) - supports pick
Counterargument
Biggest risk: sharp agreement signal is against this side (-0.09). Variance and late line moves can flip a 52% read.
Injury impact
No reported impact.
Team status
- TB · neutral58% season win rate
- WSH · neutral52% season win rate
Recent form (last 10)
- TBAvg 4.4 scored · 4.4 allowed (season)41-30
- WSHAvg 5.4 scored · 5.2 allowed (season)39-36
Historical trends
- [away] Offensive PPG gap -0.99Historical comp-0.06
- [home] Runs-allowed gap 0.86Historical comp+0.04
- [home] Home-field baselineHistorical comp+0.01
Line movement
Model vs market
Modelvs
Marketvs