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Updated todayLine moved
Updated 1h agoMLB
WSH@TB
Washington Washington Nationals at Tampa Bay Tampa Bay Rays · 7:10 PM ET
Predicted winner
WSH
Predicted final score
WSH 4.8 - TB 3.3
Sportsbook line
+105
Implied probability
48%
from market price
Model probability
47%
our estimate
Value gap
0 pts
market in line
Confidence
Final recommendation
Pass0.25u
Model pick · WSH -1.5 (+165)
Home no-vig implied moved from 52.4% to 52.3% (toward away).
"Biggest risk: statistical edge signal is against this side (-0.02). Variance and late line moves can flip a 52% read."
Top supporting factors
- statistical edge (+0.016) - against pick
- situational edge (0.000) - supports pick
- sharp agreement (-0.002) - supports pick
- market value (0.000) - supports pick
Counterargument
Biggest risk: statistical edge signal is against this side (-0.02). Variance and late line moves can flip a 52% read.
Injury impact
No reported impact.
Team status
- TB · neutral58% season win rate
- WSH · neutral52% season win rate
Recent form (last 10)
- TBAvg 4.4 scored · 4.4 allowed (season)41-30
- WSHAvg 5.4 scored · 5.2 allowed (season)39-36
Historical trends
Line movement
Model vs market
Modelvs
Marketvs