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Updated todayLine moved
Updated 2h agoNFL
BAL@IND
Baltimore Baltimore Ravens at Indianapolis Indianapolis Colts · 1:00 PM ET
Predicted winner
IND
Predicted final score
BAL 26 - IND 22.5
Sportsbook line
+165
Implied probability
36%
from market price
Model probability
37%
our estimate
Value gap
0 pts
market in line
Confidence
Final recommendation
Pass0.25u
Model pick · IND +3.5 (-110)
Home no-vig implied moved from 36.9% to 36.3% (toward away).
"Biggest risk: sharp agreement signal is against this side (-0.01). Variance and late line moves can flip a 52% read."
Top supporting factors
- statistical edge (+0.018) - supports pick
- situational edge (0.000) - supports pick
- sharp agreement (-0.009) - against pick
- market value (0.000) - supports pick
Counterargument
Biggest risk: sharp agreement signal is against this side (-0.01). Variance and late line moves can flip a 52% read.
Injury impact
No reported impact.
Team status
- IND · neutral50% season win rate
- BAL · neutral50% season win rate
Recent form (last 10)
- INDNo recent stats ingested yetNo data
- BALNo recent stats ingested yetNo data
Historical trends
- [home] Home-field baselineHistorical comp+0.01
Line movement
Model vs market
Modelvs
Marketvs