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YesterdayLine moved
Updated 26d agoMLB
WSH@BAL
Washington Washington Nationals at Baltimore Baltimore Orioles · 1:35 PM ET
Predicted winner
WSH
Predicted final score
WSH 3.8 - BAL 5.3
Sportsbook line
+168
Implied probability
36%
from market price
Model probability
36%
our estimate
Value gap
0 pts
market in line
Confidence
Final recommendation
Pass0.25u
Model pick · WSH +1.5 (-120)
Home no-vig implied moved from 63.9% to 64.3% (toward home).
"Biggest risk: sharp agreement signal is against this side (-0.01). Variance and late line moves can flip a 52% read."
Top supporting factors
- statistical edge (-0.014) - supports pick
- situational edge (0.000) - supports pick
- sharp agreement (+0.008) - against pick
- market value (0.000) - supports pick
Counterargument
Biggest risk: sharp agreement signal is against this side (-0.01). Variance and late line moves can flip a 52% read.
Injury impact
No reported impact.
Team status
- BAL · neutral47% season win rate
- WSH · neutral49% season win rate
Recent form (last 10)
- BALAvg 4.6 scored · 4.9 allowed (season)39-44
- WSHAvg 5.3 scored · 5.3 allowed (season)41-42
Historical trends
- [home] Home-field baselineHistorical comp+0.01
- [away] Offensive PPG gap -0.65Historical comp-0.04
Line movement
Model vs market
Modelvs
Marketvs