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FreshLine moved
Updated 43m agoMLB
TB@LAD
Tampa Bay Tampa Bay Rays at Los Angeles Los Angeles Dodgers · 3:10 PM ET
Predicted winner
TB
Predicted final score
TB 3 - LAD 4.5
Sportsbook line
+154
Implied probability
38%
from market price
Model probability
39%
our estimate
Value gap
+1 pts
model sees more value
Confidence
Final recommendation
Pass0.25u
Model pick · TB +1.5 (-135)
Home no-vig implied moved from 64.6% to 61.8% (toward away).
"Biggest risk: statistical edge signal is against this side (-0.01). Variance and late line moves can flip a 53% read."
Top supporting factors
- statistical edge (+0.006) - against pick
- situational edge (0.000) - supports pick
- sharp agreement (-0.046) - supports pick
- market value (0.000) - supports pick
Counterargument
Biggest risk: statistical edge signal is against this side (-0.01). Variance and late line moves can flip a 53% read.
Injury impact
No reported impact.
Team status
- LAD · hot64% season win rate
- TB · neutral59% season win rate
Recent form (last 10)
- LADAvg 5.3 scored · 3.4 allowed (season)47-27
- TBAvg 4.4 scored · 4.4 allowed (season)41-29
Historical trends
- [home] Offensive PPG gap 0.84Historical comp+0.05
- [home] Home-field baselineHistorical comp+0.01
- [home] Net rating gap 1.85Historical comp+0.05
- [home] Runs-allowed gap 1.01Historical comp+0.05
Line movement
Model vs market
Modelvs
Marketvs