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Yesterday
Updated 21d agoMLB
TB@HOU
Tampa Bay Tampa Bay Rays at Houston Houston Astros · 8:15 PM ET
Predicted winner
HOU
Predicted final score
TB 5.3 - HOU 3.8
Sportsbook line
-105
Implied probability
50%
from market price
Model probability
50%
our estimate
Value gap
0 pts
market in line
Confidence
Final recommendation
Pass0.25u
Model pick · HOU +1.5 (-170)
Home no-vig implied moved from 50.0% to 50.0% (flat).
"Biggest risk: statistical edge signal is against this side (-0.02). Variance and late line moves can flip a 52% read."
Top supporting factors
- statistical edge (-0.025) - against pick
- situational edge (0.000) - supports pick
- sharp agreement (0.000) - supports pick
- market value (0.000) - supports pick
Counterargument
Biggest risk: statistical edge signal is against this side (-0.02). Variance and late line moves can flip a 52% read.
Injury impact
No reported impact.
Team status
- HOU · neutral48% season win rate
- TB · hot61% season win rate
Recent form (last 10)
- HOUAvg 4.5 scored · 5.0 allowed (season)43-46
- TBAvg 4.6 scored · 4.1 allowed (season)51-33
Historical trends
Line movement
Model vs market
Modelvs
Marketvs