TB@NYY
Home no-vig implied moved from 58.9% to 57.7% (toward away).
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Clutch Puppy Expert Summary
This is a classic market-tug game where the model gives New York a 57.5% win probability while the market prices the home side at 58.2%, leaving a small value gap of -0.7%. The model nevertheless recommends NYY -1.5 (+133) even though the composite layers show slight headwinds to that pick. The core EV angle: tight model/market disagreement combined with near-flat market value and neutral situational signals creates a low-margin decision where line shopping matters.
The market opened -158/134 and is currently -153/130; the home no-vig implied moved from 58.9% to 58.2% (toward away). That shift — from an open of -158 to a current -153 — represents modest movement toward the road/away side, compressing home-side value slightly. There is no additional steam data provided beyond that directional move.
The statistical_edge layer shows signal -0.058 and a contribution of -0.026 (weight 0.45), which is the largest single drag on this recommendation — the model's raw numbers were tilted against the pick at the core analytic layer.
Situational_edge is neutral with signal 0, weight 0.25 and contribution 0, meaning game-specific situational factors didn't materially support or oppose NYY -1.5 (+133) and left the decision to the statistical and market layers.
Sharp_agreement carries signal -0.058, weight 0.2 and contribution -0.012 against the pick, indicating some professional money or model-aligned pressure is moving opposite the recommendation and reducing confidence.
Home historical notes include '[home] Runs-allowed gap 0.41' (strength 0.0206) and '[home] Home-field baseline' (strength 0.009), suggesting small home-field and runs-allowed signals that are present but not decisive.
- Model win probability: 57.5%
- Market implied probability: 58.2%
- Opened -158/134, current -153/130 (home line moved toward the away)
- Home no-vig implied moved from 58.9% to 58.2% (toward away)
- Model win probability: 57.5%
- Market implied probability: 58.2%
- Value gap (edge): -0.7%
- Strength score: 74%
- Opened -158/134, current -153/130
- Home no-vig implied moved from 58.9% to 58.2% (toward away)
- [home] Runs-allowed gap 0.41 (strength 0.0206)
No major injury notes detailed for this matchup.
No major injury notes detailed for this matchup.
Best bet - NYY -1.5 (+133): model recommends this as the top play despite small negative layer contributions because the composite still supports the spread; sportsbook line is -153 so shop for +133.
Total - No total play recommended.
The most realistic way this loses is the same signal the model flagged: the statistical_edge and sharp_agreement both run against the pick (statistical_edge contribution -0.026; sharp_agreement contribution -0.012).
No reported injury impact.
The model's predicted score is TB null — NYY null, consistent with a very close projected game reflected in the model win prob of 57.5% versus the market 58.2%.
Strength score 74% indicates a moderate confidence level even though the value gap is small at -0.7% — the model sees a tighter-than-usual signal but still assigns a 74% strength to the recommendation.
Expect a tight, low-separation game that the model projects as TB null — NYY null; the close projection fits the model's 57.5% win probability versus the market's 58.2%. Final score line: TB null — NYY null.
Bottom line: take NYY -1.5 (+133) as the recommended play from the model; shop aggressively against the sportsbook line of -153. Expect a small edge and act accordingly.
Shop the price — the model's recommended ticket is NYY -1.5 (+133) while the current sportsbook line is -153; try to find the +133 or better. Given the small value gap (-0.7%) and the modest movement from -158 to -153, size bets accordingly, avoid heavy leans, and consider correlated small plays only after securing the spread price.
Top supporting factors
- statistical edge (-0.026) - against pick
- situational edge (0.000) - supports pick
- sharp agreement (-0.020) - against pick
- market value (0.000) - supports pick
Counterargument
Variance is always in play.
Injury impact
No reported impact.
Team status
Recent form (last 10)
Historical trends
- [home] Runs-allowed gap 0.41
- [home] Home-field baseline