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YesterdayLine moved
Updated 44d agoMLB
STL@KC
St. Louis St. Louis Cardinals at Kansas City Kansas City Royals · 8:15 PM ET
Predicted winner
KC
Predicted final score
STL 5.3 - KC 3.8
Sportsbook line
+102
Implied probability
47%
from market price
Model probability
46%
our estimate
Value gap
-1 pts
market sees more value
Confidence
Final recommendation
Pass0.25u
Model pick · KC +1.5 (-162)
Home no-vig implied moved from 48.0% to 47.1% (toward away).
"Biggest risk: statistical edge signal is against this side (-0.03). Variance and late line moves can flip a 52% read."
Top supporting factors
- statistical edge (-0.026) - against pick
- situational edge (0.000) - supports pick
- sharp agreement (-0.014) - against pick
- market value (0.000) - supports pick
Counterargument
Biggest risk: statistical edge signal is against this side (-0.03). Variance and late line moves can flip a 52% read.
Injury impact
No reported impact.
Team status
- KC · neutral41% season win rate
- STL · neutral55% season win rate
Recent form (last 10)
- KCAvg 4.1 scored · 4.7 allowed (season)31-45
- STLAvg 4.5 scored · 4.5 allowed (season)40-33
Historical trends
- [home] Home-field baselineHistorical comp+0.01
Line movement
Model vs market
Modelvs
Marketvs