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YesterdayLine moved
Updated 2d agoMLB
MIA@PIT
Miami Miami Marlins at Pittsburgh Pittsburgh Pirates · 12:15 PM ET
Predicted winner
MIA
Predicted final score
MIA 3 - PIT 4.5
Sportsbook line
+133
Implied probability
41%
from market price
Model probability
42%
our estimate
Value gap
0 pts
market in line
Confidence
Final recommendation
Pass0.25u
Model pick · MIA +1.5 (-170)
Home no-vig implied moved from 60.3% to 58.9% (toward away).
"Biggest risk: statistical edge signal is against this side (-0.00). Variance and late line moves can flip a 52% read."
Top supporting factors
- statistical edge (0.000) - against pick
- situational edge (0.000) - supports pick
- sharp agreement (-0.023) - supports pick
- market value (0.000) - supports pick
Counterargument
Biggest risk: statistical edge signal is against this side (-0.00). Variance and late line moves can flip a 52% read.
Injury impact
No reported impact.
Team status
- PIT · neutral51% season win rate
- MIA · neutral49% season win rate
Recent form (last 10)
- PITAvg 5.0 scored · 4.8 allowed (season)36-35
- MIAAvg 4.3 scored · 4.3 allowed (season)35-36
Historical trends
- [home] Offensive PPG gap 0.72Historical comp+0.04
- [away] Runs-allowed gap -0.46Historical comp-0.02
- [home] Home-field baselineHistorical comp+0.01
Line movement
Model vs market
Modelvs
Marketvs