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YesterdayLine moved
Updated 16d agoMLB
BOS@CHW
Boston Boston Red Sox at Chicago Chicago White Sox · 7:40 PM ET
Predicted winner
CHW
Predicted final score
BOS 4.8 - CHW 3.3
Sportsbook line
-109
Implied probability
50%
from market price
Model probability
50%
our estimate
Value gap
0 pts
market in line
Confidence
Final recommendation
Pass0.25u
Model pick · CHW +1.5 (-185)
Home no-vig implied moved from 52.0% to 49.8% (toward away).
"Biggest risk: sharp agreement signal is against this side (-0.04). Variance and late line moves can flip a 52% read."
Top supporting factors
- statistical edge (+0.019) - supports pick
- situational edge (0.000) - supports pick
- sharp agreement (-0.035) - against pick
- market value (0.000) - supports pick
Counterargument
Biggest risk: sharp agreement signal is against this side (-0.04). Variance and late line moves can flip a 52% read.
Injury impact
No reported impact.
Team status
- CHW · neutral52% season win rate
- BOS · neutral46% season win rate
Recent form (last 10)
- CHWAvg 4.8 scored · 4.6 allowed (season)47-43
- BOSAvg 4.1 scored · 4.0 allowed (season)41-48
Historical trends
- [home] Home-field baselineHistorical comp+0.01
- [away] Runs-allowed gap -0.59Historical comp-0.03
- [home] Offensive PPG gap 0.67Historical comp+0.04
Line movement
Model vs market
Modelvs
Marketvs