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YesterdayLine moved
Updated 18d agoMLB
NYM@ATL
New York New York Mets at Atlanta Atlanta Braves · 7:15 PM ET
Predicted winner
NYM
Predicted final score
NYM 3.8 - ATL 5.3
Sportsbook line
+106
Implied probability
46%
from market price
Model probability
45%
our estimate
Value gap
-1 pts
market sees more value
Confidence
Final recommendation
Pass0.25u
Model pick · NYM +1.5 (-190)
Home no-vig implied moved from 53.3% to 54.0% (toward home).
"Biggest risk: statistical edge signal is against this side (-0.04). Variance and late line moves can flip a 52% read."
Top supporting factors
- statistical edge (+0.044) - against pick
- situational edge (0.000) - supports pick
- sharp agreement (+0.011) - against pick
- market value (0.000) - supports pick
Counterargument
Biggest risk: statistical edge signal is against this side (-0.04). Variance and late line moves can flip a 52% read.
Injury impact
No reported impact.
Team status
- ATL · neutral59% season win rate
- NYM · neutral41% season win rate
Recent form (last 10)
- ATLAvg 4.9 scored · 3.8 allowed (season)52-36
- NYMAvg 4.0 scored · 4.7 allowed (season)37-53
Historical trends
- [home] Home-field baselineHistorical comp+0.02
- [home] Runs-allowed gap 0.89Historical comp+0.04
- [home] Net rating gap 1.77Historical comp+0.05
- [home] Offensive PPG gap 0.88Historical comp+0.05
Line movement
Model vs market
Modelvs
Marketvs