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YesterdayLine moved
Updated 2d agoMLB
NYY@TOR
New York New York Yankees at Toronto Toronto Blue Jays · 1:37 PM ET
Predicted winner
TOR
Predicted final score
NYY 5 - TOR 3.5
Sportsbook line
+113
Implied probability
45%
from market price
Model probability
44%
our estimate
Value gap
-1 pts
market sees more value
Confidence
Final recommendation
Pass0.25u
Model pick · TOR +1.5 (-150)
Home no-vig implied moved from 47.6% to 45.0% (toward away).
"Biggest risk: sharp agreement signal is against this side (-0.04). Variance and late line moves can flip a 52% read."
Top supporting factors
- statistical edge (-0.021) - against pick
- situational edge (0.000) - supports pick
- sharp agreement (-0.042) - against pick
- market value (0.000) - supports pick
Counterargument
Biggest risk: sharp agreement signal is against this side (-0.04). Variance and late line moves can flip a 52% read.
Injury impact
No reported impact.
Team status
- TOR · neutral48% season win rate
- NYY · hot61% season win rate
Recent form (last 10)
- TORAvg 4.1 scored · 4.3 allowed (season)34-37
- NYYAvg 5.1 scored · 3.6 allowed (season)42-27
Historical trends
- [home] Home-field baselineHistorical comp+0.01
- [away] Net rating gap -1.72Historical comp-0.05
- [away] Runs-allowed gap -0.73Historical comp-0.04
- [away] Offensive PPG gap -0.99Historical comp-0.06
Line movement
Model vs market
Modelvs
Marketvs