Back to dashboard
YesterdayLine moved
Updated 20d agoMLB
BAL@CIN
Baltimore Baltimore Orioles at Cincinnati Cincinnati Reds · 7:10 PM ET
Predicted winner
BAL
Predicted final score
BAL 3.8 - CIN 5.3
Sportsbook line
+108
Implied probability
46%
from market price
Model probability
46%
our estimate
Value gap
0 pts
market in line
Confidence
Final recommendation
Pass0.25u
Model pick · BAL +1.5 (-185)
Home no-vig implied moved from 52.9% to 54.0% (toward home).
"Biggest risk: sharp agreement signal is against this side (-0.02). Variance and late line moves can flip a 52% read."
Top supporting factors
- statistical edge (+0.001) - against pick
- situational edge (0.000) - supports pick
- sharp agreement (+0.019) - against pick
- market value (0.000) - supports pick
Counterargument
Biggest risk: sharp agreement signal is against this side (-0.02). Variance and late line moves can flip a 52% read.
Injury impact
No reported impact.
Team status
- CIN · neutral46% season win rate
- BAL · neutral46% season win rate
Recent form (last 10)
- CINAvg 4.2 scored · 4.9 allowed (season)40-47
- BALAvg 4.6 scored · 4.9 allowed (season)41-48
Historical trends
- [home] Home-field baselineHistorical comp+0.01
Line movement
Model vs market
Modelvs
Marketvs