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Updated todayLine moved
Updated 9h agoMLB
DET@HOU
Detroit Detroit Tigers at Houston Houston Astros · 8:10 PM ET
Predicted winner
DET
Predicted final score
DET 3.5 - HOU 5
Sportsbook line
+144
Implied probability
39%
from market price
Model probability
38%
our estimate
Value gap
-1 pts
market sees more value
Confidence
Final recommendation
Pass0.25u
Model pick · DET +1.5 (-145)
Home no-vig implied moved from 57.4% to 60.8% (toward home).
"Biggest risk: sharp agreement signal is against this side (-0.05). Variance and late line moves can flip a 52% read."
Top supporting factors
- statistical edge (+0.002) - against pick
- situational edge (0.000) - supports pick
- sharp agreement (+0.054) - against pick
- market value (0.000) - supports pick
Counterargument
Biggest risk: sharp agreement signal is against this side (-0.05). Variance and late line moves can flip a 52% read.
Injury impact
No reported impact.
Team status
- HOU · neutral45% season win rate
- DET · neutral42% season win rate
Recent form (last 10)
- HOUAvg 4.5 scored · 5.1 allowed (season)33-41
- DETAvg 4.1 scored · 4.2 allowed (season)30-42
Historical trends
- [away] Runs-allowed gap -0.94Historical comp-0.05
- [home] Home-field baselineHistorical comp+0.01
Line movement
Model vs market
Modelvs
Marketvs