CLE@PHI
Home no-vig implied moved from 66.1% to 64.2% (toward away).
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Clutch Puppy Expert Summary
Model recommends PHI -1.5 (+108) despite a small negative value gap: Model win prob 62.9% vs Market implied 64.0% (value gap -1.1%). The core EV angle is that the model's internal strength (87%) supports laying the juice to get -1.5 on the road even though market odds have priced the home side slightly richer. Line movement (opened -220/184 → current -190/171; home no-vig implied moved from 66.1% to 64.0% toward away) shows pro activity toward the away side, which underwrites the aggressive run-line lean.
Market opened -220/184 and is now -190/171; home no-vig implied moved from 66.1% to 64.0% (toward away). That movement is a clear shift toward the away side and the books trimmed the home price from -220 to -190. The current market implied probability (64.0%) still sits above the model (62.9%), creating the small value gap of -1.1%.
The statistical_edge layer is signaling against our run-line pick (signal -0.058) and returns a contribution of -0.026 after weight (weight 0.45, contribution -0.026), so the raw numbers show the pure data component slightly penalizes laying runs. That negative statistical push is real and explains part of the model/market disagreement.
Sharp_agreement has a signal of -0.173 with weight 0.2 and contribution -0.035, the largest single negative contributor; that suggests sharp-related inputs are lining up against this pick and must be respected even as the model still leans PHI -1.5.
Situational_edge is neutral-to-supportive (signal 0, weight 0.25, contribution 0) and market_value is similarly neutral (signal 0, weight 0.1, contribution 0), which provides the model cover to back the run-line despite negative statistical and sharp signals.
Historical trends include an away Runs-allowed gap of -0.72 (noted as "[away] Runs-allowed gap -0.72" with strength -0.0359) and a home-field baseline listed simply as "[home] Home-field baseline" with strength 0.009; those trend strengths are small numerically but factored into the situational layer.
- Model win prob: 62.9% vs Market implied: 64.0% (value gap -1.1%).
- Strength score: 87%.
- Opened -220/184, current -190/171; home no-vig implied moved from 66.1% to 64.0% (toward away).
- Layer contributions include statistical_edge contribution -0.026 and sharp_agreement contribution -0.035.
- Model win prob: 62.9%.
- Market implied prob: 64.0%.
- Value gap (edge): -1.1%.
- Strength score: 87%.
- Opened -220/184 → current -190/171.
- Home no-vig implied moved from 66.1% to 64.0% (toward away).
- Historical note: [away] Runs-allowed gap -0.72 (strength -0.0359) and [home] Home-field baseline (strength 0.009).
No major injury notes detailed for this matchup.
No major injury notes detailed for this matchup.
Best bet - PHI -1.5 (+108) — recommended because the model's internal strength (87%) supports taking the road run-line despite a small negative value gap (-1.1%).
Total - No total pick was provided in the inputs.
The most realistic way this loses is if the sharp signals that weigh against the pick are right—sharp_agreement contribution -0.035—combined with the market pricing (Market implied 64.0% > Model 62.9%).
No reported injury impact.
The model's projected score is listed as CLE null — PHI null, which reflects a lack of a specific scoring projection in the inputs and higher variance in the game's outcome.
The strength score of 87% indicates a relatively strong internal conviction driven by model signals despite a slight negative value gap of -1.1% between Model (62.9%) and Market (64.0%).
Game plays tighter than the market pricing implies given mixed signals; the model's projection is listed as CLE null — PHI null, which is the explicit final line from the inputs: CLE null — PHI null.
Bottom line: take PHI -1.5 (+108) as the model recommends, but size bets mindful of the small negative value gap (-1.1%) and the model's strength score (87%).
Shop the number and the runner: the market opened at -220/184 and is now -190/171, so if you can get PHI -1.5 closer to the +108 posted, use it; size bets modestly because the value gap is -1.1% even with a high strength score (87%). Consider only single-game exposure or small correlated parlays; always shop juice and book liquidity between the opened -220 and current -190 before committing.
Top supporting factors
- statistical edge (-0.030) - against pick
- situational edge (0.000) - supports pick
- sharp agreement (-0.031) - against pick
- market value (0.000) - supports pick
Counterargument
Variance is always in play.
Injury impact
No reported impact.
Team status
Recent form (last 10)
Historical trends
- [away] Runs-allowed gap -0.72
- [home] Home-field baseline