Back to dashboard
YesterdayLine moved
Updated 18d agoMLB
MIL@STL
Milwaukee Milwaukee Brewers at St. Louis St. Louis Cardinals · 7:45 PM ET
Predicted winner
STL
Predicted final score
MIL 4.8 - STL 3.3
Sportsbook line
+104
Implied probability
47%
from market price
Model probability
46%
our estimate
Value gap
-1 pts
market sees more value
Confidence
Final recommendation
Pass0.25u
Model pick · STL +1.5 (-167)
Home no-vig implied moved from 49.1% to 46.5% (toward away).
"Biggest risk: sharp agreement signal is against this side (-0.04). Variance and late line moves can flip a 52% read."
Top supporting factors
- statistical edge (-0.012) - against pick
- situational edge (0.000) - supports pick
- sharp agreement (-0.041) - against pick
- market value (0.000) - supports pick
Counterargument
Biggest risk: sharp agreement signal is against this side (-0.04). Variance and late line moves can flip a 52% read.
Injury impact
No reported impact.
Team status
- STL · neutral54% season win rate
- MIL · hot63% season win rate
Recent form (last 10)
- STLAvg 4.6 scored · 4.5 allowed (season)47-40
- MILAvg 5.1 scored · 3.7 allowed (season)55-33
Historical trends
- [home] Home-field baselineHistorical comp+0.01
- [away] Runs-allowed gap -0.82Historical comp-0.04
Line movement
Model vs market
Modelvs
Marketvs