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YesterdayLine moved
Updated 11h agoMLB
MIA@PHI
Miami Miami Marlins at Philadelphia Philadelphia Phillies · 6:40 PM ET
Predicted winner
MIA
Predicted final score
MIA 3.5 - PHI 5
Sportsbook line
+156
Implied probability
37%
from market price
Model probability
37%
our estimate
Value gap
-1 pts
market sees more value
Confidence
Final recommendation
Pass0.25u
Model pick · MIA +1.5 (-140)
Home no-vig implied moved from 61.0% to 62.6% (toward home).
"Biggest risk: sharp agreement signal is against this side (-0.03). Variance and late line moves can flip a 52% read."
Top supporting factors
- statistical edge (+0.005) - against pick
- situational edge (0.000) - supports pick
- sharp agreement (+0.027) - against pick
- market value (0.000) - supports pick
Counterargument
Biggest risk: sharp agreement signal is against this side (-0.03). Variance and late line moves can flip a 52% read.
Injury impact
No reported impact.
Team status
- PHI · neutral54% season win rate
- MIA · neutral49% season win rate
Recent form (last 10)
- PHIAvg 4.1 scored · 4.3 allowed (season)39-33
- MIAAvg 4.2 scored · 4.3 allowed (season)36-37
Historical trends
- [home] Home-field baselineHistorical comp+0.01
Line movement
Model vs market
Modelvs
Marketvs