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Updated todayLine moved
Updated 9h agoMLB
LAA@ARI
Los Angeles Los Angeles Angels at Arizona Arizona Diamondbacks · 9:40 PM ET
Predicted winner
LAA
Predicted final score
LAA 5 - ARI 3.5
Sportsbook line
-106
Implied probability
50%
from market price
Model probability
49%
our estimate
Value gap
0 pts
market in line
Confidence
Final recommendation
Pass0.25u
Model pick · LAA -1.5 (+156)
Home no-vig implied moved from 50.9% to 50.4% (toward away).
"Biggest risk: statistical edge signal is against this side (-0.03). Variance and late line moves can flip a 52% read."
Top supporting factors
- statistical edge (+0.032) - against pick
- situational edge (0.000) - supports pick
- sharp agreement (-0.007) - supports pick
- market value (0.000) - supports pick
Counterargument
Biggest risk: statistical edge signal is against this side (-0.03). Variance and late line moves can flip a 52% read.
Injury impact
No reported impact.
Team status
- ARI · neutral51% season win rate
- LAA · cold40% season win rate
Recent form (last 10)
- ARIAvg 4.2 scored · 4.5 allowed (season)37-35
- LAAAvg 4.5 scored · 5.0 allowed (season)29-44
Historical trends
- [home] Home-field baselineHistorical comp+0.02
- [home] Runs-allowed gap 0.51Historical comp+0.03
Line movement
Model vs market
Modelvs
Marketvs