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YesterdayLine moved
Updated 24d agoMLB
LAD@ATH
Los Angeles Los Angeles Dodgers at Athletics Athletics · 9:40 PM ET
Predicted winner
ATH
Predicted final score
LAD 6.3 - ATH 4.8
Sportsbook line
+150
Implied probability
39%
from market price
Model probability
37%
our estimate
Value gap
-2 pts
market sees more value
Confidence
Final recommendation
Pass0.25u
Model pick · ATH +1.5 (+105)
Home no-vig implied moved from 42.8% to 38.8% (toward away).
"Biggest risk: sharp agreement signal is against this side (-0.06). Variance and late line moves can flip a 52% read."
Top supporting factors
- statistical edge (-0.027) - against pick
- situational edge (0.000) - supports pick
- sharp agreement (-0.064) - against pick
- market value (0.000) - supports pick
Counterargument
Biggest risk: sharp agreement signal is against this side (-0.06). Variance and late line moves can flip a 52% read.
Injury impact
No reported impact.
Team status
- ATH · neutral47% season win rate
- LAD · hot65% season win rate
Recent form (last 10)
- ATHAvg 4.6 scored · 5.3 allowed (season)40-45
- LADAvg 5.3 scored · 3.5 allowed (season)55-30
Historical trends
Line movement
Model vs market
Modelvs
Marketvs