Back to dashboard
YesterdayLine moved
Updated 2d agoMLB
SEA@WSH
Seattle Seattle Mariners at Washington Washington Nationals · 1:35 PM ET
Predicted winner
WSH
Predicted final score
SEA 6 - WSH 4.5
Sportsbook line
+112
Implied probability
45%
from market price
Model probability
46%
our estimate
Value gap
+1 pts
model sees more value
Confidence
Final recommendation
Pass0.25u
Model pick · WSH +1.5 (-135)
Home no-vig implied moved from 41.8% to 45.2% (toward home).
"Biggest risk: situational edge signal is thin (0.00). Variance and late line moves can flip a 53% read."
Top supporting factors
- statistical edge (+0.007) - supports pick
- situational edge (0.000) - supports pick
- sharp agreement (+0.054) - supports pick
- market value (0.000) - supports pick
Counterargument
Biggest risk: situational edge signal is thin (0.00). Variance and late line moves can flip a 53% read.
Injury impact
No reported impact.
Team status
- WSH · neutral51% season win rate
- SEA · neutral51% season win rate
Recent form (last 10)
- WSHAvg 5.4 scored · 5.3 allowed (season)36-35
- SEAAvg 4.3 scored · 3.9 allowed (season)37-35
Historical trends
- [home] Offensive PPG gap 1.07Historical comp+0.06
- [home] Home-field baselineHistorical comp+0.01
- [away] Runs-allowed gap -1.42Historical comp-0.07
Line movement
Model vs market
Modelvs
Marketvs