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YesterdayLine moved
Updated 2d agoMLB
LAD@CHW
Los Angeles Los Angeles Dodgers at Chicago Chicago White Sox · 2:10 PM ET
Predicted winner
LAD
Predicted final score
LAD 5.3 - CHW 3.8
Sportsbook line
-106
Implied probability
49%
from market price
Model probability
45%
our estimate
Value gap
-3 pts
market sees more value
Confidence
Final recommendation
Pass0.25u
Model pick · LAD -1.5 (+150)
Home no-vig implied moved from 36.6% to 51.3% (toward home). Steam detected across 3+ books in last 30 min.
"Biggest risk: sharp agreement signal is against this side (-0.20). Variance and late line moves can flip a 52% read."
Top supporting factors
- statistical edge (-0.019) - supports pick
- situational edge (0.000) - supports pick
- sharp agreement (+0.200) - against pick
- market value (0.000) - supports pick
Counterargument
Biggest risk: sharp agreement signal is against this side (-0.20). Variance and late line moves can flip a 52% read.
Injury impact
No reported impact.
Team status
- CHW · neutral54% season win rate
- LAD · hot63% season win rate
Recent form (last 10)
- CHWAvg 4.7 scored · 4.6 allowed (season)37-32
- LADAvg 5.4 scored · 3.4 allowed (season)45-26
Historical trends
- [away] Net rating gap -1.87Historical comp-0.05
- [away] Runs-allowed gap -1.23Historical comp-0.06
- [away] Offensive PPG gap -0.64Historical comp-0.04
- [home] Home-field baselineHistorical comp+0.01
Line movement
Model vs market
Modelvs
Marketvs