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YesterdayLine moved
Updated 20d agoMLB
MIA@ATH
Miami Miami Marlins at Athletics Athletics · 9:40 PM ET
Predicted winner
ATH
Predicted final score
MIA 6.3 - ATH 4.8
Sportsbook line
+114
Implied probability
44%
from market price
Model probability
43%
our estimate
Value gap
-1 pts
market sees more value
Confidence
Final recommendation
Pass0.25u
Model pick · ATH +1.5 (-130)
Home no-vig implied moved from 47.6% to 44.4% (toward away).
"Biggest risk: sharp agreement signal is against this side (-0.05). Variance and late line moves can flip a 52% read."
Top supporting factors
- statistical edge (-0.005) - against pick
- situational edge (0.000) - supports pick
- sharp agreement (-0.051) - against pick
- market value (0.000) - supports pick
Counterargument
Biggest risk: sharp agreement signal is against this side (-0.05). Variance and late line moves can flip a 52% read.
Injury impact
No reported impact.
Team status
- ATH · neutral47% season win rate
- MIA · neutral53% season win rate
Recent form (last 10)
- ATHAvg 4.6 scored · 5.4 allowed (season)41-47
- MIAAvg 4.5 scored · 4.3 allowed (season)47-42
Historical trends
- [home] Home-field baselineHistorical comp+0.01
- [away] Runs-allowed gap -1.05Historical comp-0.05
Line movement
Model vs market
Modelvs
Marketvs