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YesterdayLine moved
Updated 2d agoNCAAF
TULN@DUKE
Tulane Tulane Green Wave at Duke Duke Blue Devils · 3:30 PM ET
Predicted winner
TULN
Predicted final score
TULN 22 - DUKE 31.5
Sportsbook line
+350
Implied probability
21%
from market price
Model probability
21%
our estimate
Value gap
-1 pts
market sees more value
Confidence
Final recommendation
Pass0.25u
Model pick · TULN +9.5 (-109)
Home no-vig implied moved from 75.5% to 78.7% (toward home).
"Biggest risk: sharp agreement signal is against this side (-0.05). Variance and late line moves can flip a 52% read."
Top supporting factors
- statistical edge (-0.007) - supports pick
- situational edge (0.000) - supports pick
- sharp agreement (+0.051) - against pick
- market value (0.000) - supports pick
Counterargument
Biggest risk: sharp agreement signal is against this side (-0.05). Variance and late line moves can flip a 52% read.
Injury impact
No reported impact.
Team status
- DUKE · neutral50% season win rate
- TULN · neutral50% season win rate
Recent form (last 10)
- DUKENo recent stats ingested yetNo data
- TULNNo recent stats ingested yetNo data
Historical trends
- [home] Home-field baselineHistorical comp+0.01
Line movement
Model vs market
Modelvs
Marketvs