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Updated todayLine moved
Updated 2h agoNFL
GB@MIN
Green Bay Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Minnesota Vikings · 4:25 PM ET
Predicted winner
MIN
Predicted final score
GB 22.3 - MIN 23.3
Sportsbook line
-105
Implied probability
48%
from market price
Model probability
49%
our estimate
Value gap
+1 pts
model sees more value
Confidence
Final recommendation
Pass0.25u
Model pick · MIN -1 (-110)
Home no-vig implied moved from 46.8% to 48.2% (toward home).
"Biggest risk: situational edge signal is thin (0.00). Variance and late line moves can flip a 53% read."
Top supporting factors
- statistical edge (+0.005) - supports pick
- situational edge (0.000) - supports pick
- sharp agreement (+0.024) - supports pick
- market value (0.000) - supports pick
Counterargument
Biggest risk: situational edge signal is thin (0.00). Variance and late line moves can flip a 53% read.
Injury impact
No reported impact.
Team status
- MIN · neutral50% season win rate
- GB · neutral50% season win rate
Recent form (last 10)
- MINNo recent stats ingested yetNo data
- GBNo recent stats ingested yetNo data
Historical trends
- [home] Home-field baselineHistorical comp+0.01
Line movement
Model vs market
Modelvs
Marketvs