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YesterdayLine moved
Updated 23d agoMLB
SF@ARI
San Francisco San Francisco Giants at Arizona Arizona Diamondbacks · 9:40 PM ET
Predicted winner
SF
Predicted final score
SF 4 - ARI 5.5
Sportsbook line
+112
Implied probability
45%
from market price
Model probability
44%
our estimate
Value gap
-1 pts
market sees more value
Confidence
Final recommendation
Pass0.25u
Model pick · SF +1.5 (-172)
Home no-vig implied moved from 51.5% to 54.7% (toward home).
"Biggest risk: sharp agreement signal is against this side (-0.05). Variance and late line moves can flip a 52% read."
Top supporting factors
- statistical edge (+0.023) - against pick
- situational edge (0.000) - supports pick
- sharp agreement (+0.050) - against pick
- market value (0.000) - supports pick
Counterargument
Biggest risk: sharp agreement signal is against this side (-0.05). Variance and late line moves can flip a 52% read.
Injury impact
No reported impact.
Team status
- ARI · neutral51% season win rate
- SF · neutral41% season win rate
Recent form (last 10)
- ARIAvg 4.3 scored · 4.6 allowed (season)43-42
- SFAvg 4.0 scored · 4.7 allowed (season)35-50
Historical trends
- [home] Home-field baselineHistorical comp+0.01
Line movement
Model vs market
Modelvs
Marketvs