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YesterdayLine moved
Updated 19d agoMLB
BAL@CIN
Baltimore Baltimore Orioles at Cincinnati Cincinnati Reds · 1:05 PM ET
Predicted winner
CIN
Predicted final score
BAL 5.5 - CIN 4
Sportsbook line
-102
Implied probability
48%
from market price
Model probability
48%
our estimate
Value gap
-1 pts
market sees more value
Confidence
Final recommendation
Pass0.25u
Model pick · CIN +1.5 (-160)
Home no-vig implied moved from 50.4% to 48.3% (toward away).
"Biggest risk: sharp agreement signal is against this side (-0.03). Variance and late line moves can flip a 52% read."
Top supporting factors
- statistical edge (+0.003) - supports pick
- situational edge (0.000) - supports pick
- sharp agreement (-0.035) - against pick
- market value (0.000) - supports pick
Counterargument
Biggest risk: sharp agreement signal is against this side (-0.03). Variance and late line moves can flip a 52% read.
Injury impact
No reported impact.
Team status
- CIN · neutral45% season win rate
- BAL · neutral47% season win rate
Recent form (last 10)
- CINAvg 4.2 scored · 4.9 allowed (season)40-48
- BALAvg 4.6 scored · 4.9 allowed (season)42-48
Historical trends
- [home] Home-field baselineHistorical comp+0.01
Line movement
Model vs market
Modelvs
Marketvs