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YesterdayLine moved
Updated 3d agoMLB
PHI@MIL
Philadelphia Philadelphia Phillies at Milwaukee Milwaukee Brewers · 7:10 PM ET
Predicted winner
PHI
Predicted final score
PHI 3.5 - MIL 5
Sportsbook line
+141
Implied probability
40%
from market price
Model probability
38%
our estimate
Value gap
-2 pts
market sees more value
Confidence
Final recommendation
Pass0.25u
Model pick · PHI +1.5 (-145)
Home no-vig implied moved from 53.7% to 60.3% (toward home).
"Biggest risk: sharp agreement signal is against this side (-0.11). Variance and late line moves can flip a 52% read."
Top supporting factors
- statistical edge (+0.017) - against pick
- situational edge (0.000) - supports pick
- sharp agreement (+0.105) - against pick
- market value (0.000) - supports pick
Counterargument
Biggest risk: sharp agreement signal is against this side (-0.11). Variance and late line moves can flip a 52% read.
Injury impact
No reported impact.
Team status
- MIL · hot63% season win rate
- PHI · neutral54% season win rate
Recent form (last 10)
- MILAvg 5.3 scored · 3.7 allowed (season)42-25
- PHIAvg 4.0 scored · 4.3 allowed (season)37-32
Historical trends
- [home] Home-field baselineHistorical comp+0.01
- [home] Runs-allowed gap 0.57Historical comp+0.03
- [home] Net rating gap 1.92Historical comp+0.05
- [home] Offensive PPG gap 1.34Historical comp+0.08
Line movement
Model vs market
Modelvs
Marketvs