Back to dashboard
YesterdayLine moved
Updated 18d agoMLB
TOR@SF
Toronto Toronto Blue Jays at San Francisco San Francisco Giants · 9:45 PM ET
Predicted winner
SF
Predicted final score
TOR 4.5 - SF 3
Sportsbook line
-108
Implied probability
50%
from market price
Model probability
50%
our estimate
Value gap
0 pts
market in line
Confidence
Final recommendation
Pass0.25u
Model pick · SF +1.5 (-186)
Home no-vig implied moved from 49.6% to 50.0% (toward home).
"Biggest risk: statistical edge signal is against this side (-0.01). Variance and late line moves can flip a 52% read."
Top supporting factors
- statistical edge (-0.007) - against pick
- situational edge (0.000) - supports pick
- sharp agreement (+0.007) - supports pick
- market value (0.000) - supports pick
Counterargument
Biggest risk: statistical edge signal is against this side (-0.01). Variance and late line moves can flip a 52% read.
Injury impact
No reported impact.
Team status
- SF · neutral42% season win rate
- TOR · neutral47% season win rate
Recent form (last 10)
- SFAvg 4.1 scored · 4.8 allowed (season)37-52
- TORAvg 4.0 scored · 4.4 allowed (season)42-48
Historical trends
- [home] Home-field baselineHistorical comp+0.01
- [away] Runs-allowed gap -0.41Historical comp-0.02
Line movement
Model vs market
Modelvs
Marketvs