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YesterdayLine moved
Updated 44d agoMLB
BOS@SEA
Boston Boston Red Sox at Seattle Seattle Mariners · 10:10 PM ET
Predicted winner
BOS
Predicted final score
BOS 3 - SEA 4.5
Sportsbook line
+109
Implied probability
47%
from market price
Model probability
46%
our estimate
Value gap
-1 pts
market sees more value
Confidence
Final recommendation
Pass0.25u
Model pick · BOS +1.5 (-200)
Home no-vig implied moved from 52.4% to 53.3% (toward home).
"Biggest risk: statistical edge signal is against this side (-0.02). Variance and late line moves can flip a 52% read."
Top supporting factors
- statistical edge (+0.024) - against pick
- situational edge (0.000) - supports pick
- sharp agreement (+0.014) - against pick
- market value (0.000) - supports pick
Counterargument
Biggest risk: statistical edge signal is against this side (-0.02). Variance and late line moves can flip a 52% read.
Injury impact
No reported impact.
Team status
- SEA · neutral51% season win rate
- BOS · neutral41% season win rate
Recent form (last 10)
- SEAAvg 4.2 scored · 3.9 allowed (season)39-38
- BOSAvg 3.9 scored · 4.1 allowed (season)30-43
Historical trends
- [home] Home-field baselineHistorical comp+0.01
Line movement
Model vs market
Modelvs
Marketvs